Tag: Trump

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More polls are coming out on the 2024 presidential election and pundits everywhere are trying to explain what they mean. This might be a useful exercise if the polls weren’t so damn depressing. But they are depressing. No matter what polls come out, it points to a close election with Biden behind in all the states that need to be won for a Biden victory. It doesn’t really matter why at this point. What matters is can Biden change this in time to win the election. I see no evidence of this.

Nate Silver was looking at the polls and had some interesting thoughts about what to do. The Democrats seem committed to a strategy that insures a close election particularly in regards to the Electoral College. Silver sees the most likely scenario for a Biden win is Biden with 270 Electoral Votes(the minimum number needed to win) and Trump with 268. This result has numerous potential for election stealing complaints with all of the contingent problems those complaints would bring. The better question is there an option?

Obviously, a different candidate might help. But isn’t this a roll of the dice when Biden, at least, has a chance of winning? It is. This, however, misses the point. As Silver noted the Democrats are already rolling the dice with Biden. He isn’t a sure thing and numerous things could get worse with a Biden candidacy and very little can get better. If the Democrats are going to roll the dice, why not roll it on a different candidate that could shake things up for Trump because Biden, at least as of this date, isn’t.

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New polls are showing Trump still leading Biden in a close race. Democrats are saying not worry though because Biden leads with likely voters as opposed to registered voters. I guess I shouldn’t worry then, right? Because these experts are never wrong, right? Well, if you ignore President Al Gore and President Hillary Clinton. Somehow I don’t find this comforting because, and I am just speculating here, what if some of those registered voters turn into actual voters. It could happen. Registered voters could actually turn out and vote.

The lack of energy on the Democratic side is disheartening. It is like the election is all wrapped up. They are confident that Trump will do something that will ruin his chances and everything will be just fine. They mean, of course, something like a videotape of Trump talking about grabbing unwilling women by the pussy. Yes that should work, absolutely. Nobody could vote for him after saying something like that. Waiting for Trump to make a mistake or to get convicted of a felony is a terrible strategy. It puts Trump in the driver seat. He has been successfully milking his grievances to get his way for years. I don’t understand it and I don’t like it but it is nonetheless true.

Even more disheartening is Biden doesn’t seem up to the vigorous campaign required for someone is such a tight election. He has disappeared. I challenge you to go to any news web site and check the number of times the name Trump is mentioned with the name Biden. It isn’t even close. Trump is always in the public eye. Yes, a lot of it is bad press but it is press and a lot of people either don’t understand the arguments against Trump or don’t care. We are, after all, talking about low information voters. Either way, the name Trump is on everyone’s lips — friend or foe, Biden not so much.

Surprisingly for a man who needs to change people’s minds about his age, Biden is doing remarkably little to do it. Protecting Biden from public view is a terrible idea. Better that he is bumbling around in front of a camera than hidden away in the White House. Could he do any worse than falling asleep at a trial which hasn’t seemed to hurt Trump in the least. Trump is only a few years younger than Biden. They are both old men. Right now Trump appears to be the more energetic of the two. If there are people who care about this, and, by that, I mean low information voters, then Biden needs to meet the challenge. Isn’t it better to get him out there in order to test the old fellow to see how he does? If he is up to then I am fine with sticking with him. If he isn’t, I would rather discover this now than in August after the Democratic Convention when the die is cast.

But telling me not to worry and trust that the Democratic big wigs know what they are talking about and this is in the bag is madness. True bat shit craziness. Before I can trust you with your speculations, you need to show you can turn things around. Biden’s continuing stagnant poll numbers misses the mark by a mile.

I am worried.

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Democracy is at stake or so we are told. America’s two largest political parties are going to nominate aging unpopular candidates as their nominees. The Republicans because they think they were cheated and want revenge and the Democrats because, well, I don’t know why. I am told there is no one better. For many voters, this means, it could come down to flip of the coin which is frightening when you consider the very close races that decided the elections in both 2016 and 2020.

But not to worry, Trump will be a convicted felon by election day. Or not. I don’t know why people think the courts would save the day. Have these people ever dealt with courts? I know it has been loads of fun watching Trump getting frustrated by these court appearances but this is the type of ordeal that Trump was made for.

Trump has been using the courts his entire adult life to gain advantage and he understands the key to winning is delay. He knows how to wear people down until his nemesis surrenders and makes a deal. Now Trump has even a better option than a deal. If he delays long enough and wins the presidency, he can pardon himself.

The Democrats argue that the best response to Trump is Joe Biden. I wish I shared their confidence because Biden trails Trump in the polls. Biden is in trouble because many people think he is too old to be president. This could be handled easily by putting the old boy out there on the campaign trail. But someone is keeping him off and this would be fine if it helped. But it doesn’t. It’s a no win position. If Biden makes public appearances he looks old and if he doesn’t make appearances people think he is hiding because he is too old.

Don’t worry. Joe is saving it for the Fall. I am not sure why Biden will be better in the Fall because his problem is a perception of being old. He isn’t recovering from an illness and can expect to be in better shape after a short rest, he will, in fact, be even older in the Fall. Unfortunately, while Biden is comfortably resting,Trump is grabbing all the press — good, bad, or indifferent. Trump may be crazy but he is certainly visible and Trump likes being visible. He thrives on it. So, perhaps the Democrats nominating a candidate who has to save it for the fall isn’t the appropriate choice for such a rigorous undertaking as running for president.

People are saying that Trump is cornered now and has nowhere to run. This seems to be wishful thinking by the powers that be and a continual mistake that people make when dealing with Trump. In 2016, the Republican Establishment assured us that there is no way Trump could be nominated. Well, he was. The Democrats gave us Hillary Clinton who they assured us was the candidate who could defeat Trump. She wasn’t. Trump was impeached once. He laughed that one off. He slyly instigated violence on January 6. He denied everything and told us that we got it all wrong and began rewriting the history of the day. His supporters backed him. He was impeached again. Almost the entire Republican party got in line to say that nothing actually happened despite what they said to the contrary on January 6.

Trump has survived some very heavy fire and is relatively unscathed. At this point, I have more confidence that Trump has a better understanding about what is going on than the doyens in the press and government. Trump is constantly being underestimated which is sad for a man so dangerous. Just because they think a man is an uncouth idiot doesn’t mean everyone else agrees with them. This continual confidence that Trump is finally on the ropes displays a stunning amnesia of recent history. Trump has beaten his betters time and again and they don’t seem to realize it. Which is more than a little disconcerting.