Category: Middle East

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I guess we are at war although Trump and company say otherwise. There are war like things going on — the occasional missile falling on the UAE, the Straight of Hormuz being closed to commercial shipping (Sorry if it is open, the status changes so quickly I can’t keep track) and there is war like rhetoric flowing from both sides.

Who knows? There is no consistent trustworthy source of information. By that, I mean every one agrees that these people are supplying the facts as they are. So as far as I can see we are in a range of the war is already won to the war will go forever. The truth is somewhere in between those two mutually exclusive points. But where it is in this range I haven’t a clue.

I do know that the general feeling that comes from a nation at war, the rally around the flag feeling, is glaringly missing. Young men aren’t signing up at the recruiting stations. There is no grandmotherly figure urging us to grow victory gardens. People aren’t glued to their television sets watching the progress of the war — although this may be more a result of there being so little progress (either way) in this war.

Think World War II — everybody (this includes the Allies and the Axis, Democrats and Republicans, British and Americans, I mean everybody) knew it would end when the Germans and Japanese surrendered or vice versa. The finish line was apparent.

What will mark the end of the Iranian War is both a mystery and dependent on who you are talking with. Iranians say one thing. The Trump Administration says another. There are negotiations sometimes going on and sometimes stalled. Trump says nothing short of an Iranian unconditional surrender is unacceptable. Except that he is negotiating terms with the Iranian government and they are bring terms which are far from unconditional surrender.

Which begs the question when does a defeated enemy negotiate terms. If you lost the war, you take the terms that the winner gives you and hope for the best. This isn’t happening here so Trump’s victory claims are hollow.

There is very little, if any, personal investment in winning the war. The only consistent sentiment I can see is that everybody wants the war over as fast as humanly possible. Oddly missing is any idea of what victory actually looks like — just end the fucker. Hardly a war cry to rally the nation.

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I wrote about this the other day so I thought I had vented my spleen sufficiently but then I stumbled across Erick Erickson’s lame rejoinder regarding Trump’s threat to destroy a civilization and the spleen became inflamed again. Erickson rather blithely said he would have preferred that Trump had not said it but if it was between that and Trans Recognition Day then well wink wink nudge nudge. Get it.

Fuck you, Erick Erickson. How was this the choice? The choice was between Trump making a measured comment about the American involvement in a war (or military operation if you will) and one where he threatens to destroy a whole civilization. On Easter — the Christians holiest day. Trans people were no where in the equation until Erickson dragged them out.

This is yet another example of Trump supporters dismissing Trump’s terrible behavior. I don’t like what he said but it is better than the alternate. The alternate, in this case, is a president savvy enough to talk reasonably about a dangerous situation that he is responsible for. What needs to be addressed is Trump’s statement. Erickson needs to give critical feedback without the additional little zinger about Trans people which suggests, I might add, that there are no limits to Erickson’s support of Trump. This might have been a good time for Erickson to stipulate these limits instead of giving him limitless support for fear of what was it? Oh, yeah, Trans Recognition Day.

Trump has always been an asshole and will continue to be an asshole. He is what he is. But his supporters are a different story. To continue to support a careless president is madness particularly as he continues his dangerous meanderings through the world. Republicans and Conservatives must draw the line because they hold the power in Congress to stop him.

Just for the record, and I can’t believe I am suggesting this, the alternate is J.D. Vance. When that weasel starts looking good to me, and he is, you know we are in desperate times.

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I try not to talk about Donald Trump too much. It is a nearly impossible task as he is president of the United States and is always inserting himself into everything. So I apologize for yet another Donald Trump post and, after some consideration this more about Donald Trump’s apologists who, instead of trying to right Trump’s direction, just go along with him come Hell or high water.

I took a photo (see below)of an Instapundit post because Instapundit doesn’t provide a direct link to their post so this was the only way I could figure out how to get you the post in question without you paging through the whole blog which would leave you disheartened from the slavish loyalty to Donald Trump. It is a dirty job and I am willing to do it.

Trumps threat in this post, although a bit tamer than the one where he wants to bomb Iran back to the stone age one, is about annihilating a whole country. Instapundit’s defense is to point out that the Islamic aspect of Iranian civilization is actually a colonist civilization and is separate from actual Persian civilization. So, I am gathering, destroying Iran now is perfectly OK because it is Islamic and not in fact Persian.

Well OK thanks. I guess but that has nothing to do with the point Piers Morgan was making. Trump is talking about destroying an entire civilization because they won’t do what he wants. Maybe Trump has a less deadly idea of what destroying a civilization is but my interpretation is that all the Iranian people would be dead along with all buildings and all infrastructure. There would just be a pile of rubble after the Tuesday deadline. This is what Trump is threatening. The distinction between Islamic and Persian here is meaningless. Islamic rubble and Persian rubble are pretty much the same thing. Rubble.

Trump’s tone and Instapundit’s unwavering support are unhelpful in bringing about peace for the following reasons:

  1. The US does not have the fire power to flatten Iran. It would take nuclear bombs to accomplish total destruction and, call me naive, I am assuming nuclear is off the table. We could maybe level the center city of a few major cities but the rest of Iran would still be standing. Threatening annihilation is an idle threat and everybody knows it.
  2. It is also nearly impossible, at least in the short term, to destroy a civilization. Both Japan and Germany recovered quite nicely after World War II which was the last time we experimented with total annihilation. There were a lot of dead people and burned out buildings but both nations recovered. So, even, if the worst were to happen (see point 1) the Iranian people and their civilization will survive. The hated Iranian government might even survive.
  3. It does not help that Trump at numerous times have told us that the Iranian military and the nuclear capability has been destroyed while also threatening to destroy Iranian military capabilities. Sometimes even in the same statement. Which begs the question, what is left to destroy?
  4. The snarkiness about Muslim culture might feel good in the moment but keep in mind we are depending on some Muslim allies in the region for bases in which to wage the Iranian war. They are already taking missiles for us, they may feel a little less inclined to assist if they think we are antagonistic to Islam.
  5. If Trump wants to help the Iranian people, he might try to co-ordinate his war making with Iranian critics in Iran. He may be doing that but his tone suggests he is not. What reasonable Iranian ally would want to see the total destruction of their civilization?

Trump’s go to tone is the aggressive attacking of his opponents and then when you are done attacking them, go back and attack them again. It has worked well for him in the past but is wrong for this moment. He might even consider just keeping his trap shut for a few days just to see if people are more amenable to what he is trying to do. It is worth a try.

And, if he can’t see his way into keeping his trap shut, this is the time for his allies and supporters to tell him to do so. They are failing miserably in their responsibility here. Pissing off half the nation and our allies is a terrible strategy for winning a war. But, hey ho, at least I learned the difference between Muslim Iranian culture and Persian culture. Very helpful that.

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Donald Trump acknowledged that he calls the Iranian military operation instead of a war because of legal reasons. Congressional Authorization, then, boils down to what the President calls his action rather than a universal understanding of what war is. You say potato, I say … Sorry, that old saying does work in writing but you catch my drift. Also, just as a reminder to the President, parsing phrases to avoid the unlikely retribution of Congress only really works if you don’t tell everyone what you are doing otherwise, in legal terms, this is known as a confession.

But, never mind — a military operation it is. This military operation has been going on a good month. Now I can quibble, and I will, about bombs and targeted assassinations being acts of war, but, say I wanted to be generous to Trump here, and agree with his characterization of those actions as being a military operation instead of a war.

When does a military operation become a war? And, just like that, an answer appears — when you send 50,000 ground troops. Bombing plus troops surely adds up to war. Or are we in some semantic Hell where Trump can call a war anything he wants and the Congress will agree to in order to avoid the wrath of Trump’s more rabid supporters. Apparently it is semantic Hell.

This whole operation is caught up in different definitions of words. Trump supposedly can only act without Congressional Authorization if it is an emergency. The USA would have to be in immediate and grave danger. My understanding of this power would be an impeding attack of USA was about to take place. There is absolutely no evidence that this was the case.

But the Iranians were trying to restart their nuclear program. No doubt, however, according to Trump the Iranian nuclear program was destroyed in a previous attack so the idea that so the idea that the Iranians had miraculously resurrected their nuclear capability to the point of an immenent attack is unbelievable. I am fairly certain there was more than enough time for Congress to review the problem and give its consent.

The Iranian, dare I call it, War is a disappointing display of hubris on the part of Trump and cowardice on the part of Congress. The whole point of Congressional Authorization for wars is that war is a serious business for a country. If we are going to take on such a responsibility it needs to come after careful consideration from the body that represents the all the people of the USA. For wars, particularly messy and potentially long term commitment wars to be won, everyone needs to be on board. This has not happened.

Instead we have semantic parsing of words so one man can drag a nation of 300 million plus people into a war dressed up like a military operation.

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The problem that many people, including myself, have with Donald Trump is he is, above all else, an asshole extraordinaire. That this detestable prick is president of the United States is both extremely depressing and a source of conflicting feelings about what he does.

So let me lay it out for my present destress:

  1. I dislike Donald Trump and disagree with most, if not everything, he does.
  2. I like the United States. It is my home.
  3. Donald Trump is the president of the United States.While I think he is a fuck up and fucking up everything he lays his tiny hands on, he also leads my country.
  4. I want my country to succeed whenever possible.

Which leads to the question, how can I hope for the best for my country with this miserable little shit running the country?

For example, the war with Iran. I think it is a big mistake. On the other hand, I think the world would be a worse place if the United States lost it. Muslim extremism, chaos in Iran and in the neighboring region, Women’s rights, Gay rights, things could get a whole lot worse if he were to lose. I can’t see how any of this would be better if the United States lost.

But, then, Trump is such a detestable man, if he wins, he will take credit for the victory and thus become even more insufferable. He will think he is smarter than he actually is and will continue governing as he had thinking he is wiser than he is. Thus making him even more likely to make even more risky decisions because he keeps rolling the dice and coming up a winner.

My one fond hope, though highly unlikely, is that Trump will be forced to work with Congress and our Allies to obtain a settlement that frees Iran from Muslim extremism while also bringing some peaceful resolution to the troubles in the region. So what I want, I guess, is for Trump to succeed only after he throws himself on the mercy of Congress and our Allies in order to ensure the victory.

Barring that, all I see is a mess.

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I need to clarify one of my blogs – A Stopped Clock is Right Twice a Day.

First, I give the impression that I thought bombing Iran is a good idea. I don’t.

What I want to say is this: Since Trump has starting bombing Iran, I am going to hope for the best — which is a non-religious Iranian government takes over and the Mullahs are overthrown. Since the military intervention is a done deal, I am hoping for the best result especially for the Iranian people and the American military.

This doesn’t mean I like what Trump has done. I think he is rolling the die here and he doesn’t impress me as someone who knows what dice game is being played much less how to win the game. He didn’t consult Congress and he is doing a piss poor job explaining why we are at war. If it all goes wrong, it is his bag of shit to hold and no one else’s.

With that said, since he has gone ahead with the war, I want him to succeed even though I hate his guts, have no confidence in his ability to successfully pull this off and think he is an asshole. It also kills me that if he does succeed that he has all the diplomatic finesse of an adolescent boy getting laid for the first time. He will be talking about this for some time to come. Endlessly talking about it.

It will be annoying but much more preferable than a disaster in Iran which results in a stronger more authoritarian leader in Iran and more restrictive Islamic fundamentalism foisted on the Iranian people. It is a bad choice but a choice nonetheless.

Finally, I am amazed, yet again, how I can write something, reread what I’ve written to make sure it is what I want to say, publish it, only to realize it isn’t exactly what I wanted to say. My apologies and I endeavor to do better in the future.

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The situation in Israel and Gaza is mess. It is impossible to ignore because, at the very least, displaced refugees will exit a war zone and need new homes and, at worst, a wave of terrorism will be unleashed on the West. The options on how to handle the mess is depressing because there is nothing new here. Israel and Hamas will continue to do the same thing they have always done with the same depressing results.

It is difficult for me to take Hamas’ complaints about Gaza seriously because Hamas deliberately attacked Israel with the intention of provoking Israel. There was no other reason. They knew this would happen that is why they attacked.

Hamas is supposed to be the government in Gaza so their behavior on October 7 is unacceptable. If killing children, raping women and kidnapping grandmothers is what a Hamas government is about, then Hamas’ behavior is more than alarming. It is a war crime and the Israelis have every right to pursue these criminals. As a government, Hamas is responsible for their soldiers. They haven’t done anything to discipline the worst offenders of October 7, so I can only assume that they are a criminal government with criminal soldiers.

Also, a Hamas government has sadly neglected the people in Gaza. They knew they were going to attack Israel. Did they do anything to protect their own population against what was about to happen. Did they store food and medicine? Apparently not. They don’t mind hiding in heavily populated areas which puts their civilian population (read here women and children) at risk. Hamas is discouraging evacuations and blocking exits out of dangerous areas. This is good government? So you can spare me any arguments that Hamas cares about their civilian population. They want them massacred. They need bloody bodies so that the BBC and CNN can show them to a horrified public.

Finally, there is the argument that the people in Gaza are being held captive by Hamas so they shouldn’t be punished for Hamas’ actions. What? If Hamas is holding the people in Gaza hostage then we should be rescuing them. Right? Hamas is either the government there or not. If Hamas represents the people of Gaza, this means that the civilian population of the country is fair game. I know that this is true because Hamas and its supporters in the West tell me so. You see if it is all right for Hamas to attack the civilian population of Israel, how can it be wrong for Israel to do the same. If Gaza is being held hostage by Hamas, then let’s rescue the people in Gaza immediately because Hamas isn’t doing much to help them.

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Hamas isn’t interested in making the Palestinians lives any better, they want the destruction of Israel. These are two distinctly different goals. One might be done peacefully, the other will require a bloodbath. Hamas wants the bloodbath.

Since the Israelis have a strong military, and, where it matters, a unified population on how to battle Hamas, Israel has the distinct advantage. There is little to no evidence that it is even possible to drive the Israelis out and it certainly would cost many lives on both sides. Without some change in strategy, the only thing Hamas can do in the short term is make life miserable for the Israelis which, in turn, also means the Palestinians. And around and around she goes.

So for the foreseeable future, life in the Middle East will continue to be bloody. The Palestinians in Gaza are about to pay a high price for Hamas brutality which means the world is about to watch Israel go into the Gaza with both guns blazing. More dead women and children, more wounded and maimed, more cities in rubble, so more people without homes and more people who nobody wants searching the world for a place to live without fear of a missile flying through their roof. It is hopeless and depressing and I wish I had an answer. But I don’t and really it doesn’t appear that anyone else does either.

I do know that Hamas are evil fucks. I just can’t listen to their excuses nor their outrage over how the Israelis treat the people in Gaza. They knew what they were doing and how the Israelis would react that was, after all, the only purpose for the attack — a giant publicity stunt showing how relevant Hamas is. But they fucked that up when they gleefully started killing children. This wasn’t the publicity Hamas was after.

And it isn’t as if I believe the Israelis have been saints, they haven’t. But, seriously, I haven’t heard of any recent Israeli military actions where their soldiers intentionally killed children or, for that matter, a doped up audience. Attacking a rock concert at sunrise. How brave. Their victims were probably high as kite or coming down from being high as a kite — not quite equal combatants with the Hamas terrorists.

People are still responsible for what they do. No amount of suffering justifies raping hostages and killing babies. If Hamas represents the Palestinian nation, then their soldiers should behave like good soldiers when acting for the nation. Good soldiers only kill when it is necessary and not out of revenge for past wrongs. Killing should be the last resort. This isn’t what happened. Hamas exhibited a cruelty that was inexcusable for good soldiers in combat which means they are terrorists and not soldiers.

So, all that is left for now is for the Israelis to create a humanitarian crisis in Gaza and thus begins a new round of bloody recriminations.