I am conflicted with those Academy Awards acceptance speeches when an actor, who has struggled for years, finally gets his due. Don’t get me wrong, it is nice to see someone finally making their dream come true. Never give up on your dream is the winner’s refrain. Anything is possible if you keep trying. Great sentiments, very motivating and not exactly true for everyone. Most great actors will never receive an Academy Award. There are, in fact, more Academy Award losers than winners and an even greater number of actors who were never nominated. This is an awful lot of people who had to give up on their dream.

Therein lies the problem. Actors getting Academy Awards is an exception to the rule and not the rule. Americans have internalized this idea that if you work hard enough all your dreams will come true. We believe the dream despite knowing plenty of hard working people struggling to keep their heads above water. So let’s be clear, some people will work hard and not live to experience their American Dream.

These don’t give up on your dream speeches usually include all the ingredients of how Americans view the American Dream. There is the personal struggle, the persistence to overcome any roadblocks, the years of hard work without recognition and then the eventual achievement. So when Americans hear these speeches, we think isn’t that great, this person struggled like me and see what happened to them. These people didn’t give up on their dream and look what they achieved. I just need to work harder. The subtext there is that if you don’t get your Academy Award that you just need to work harder and not given up on your dream. But, it’s all your fault. That other factors like money or education or race or just plain luck might affect whether an individual succeeds is ignored. They have nothing to do with the American Dream. All you got to do is work hard and anything is possible.

My question is how possible. Is it a 50/50 chance? Or is a long shot? If it is a long shot, then perhaps a more realistic discussion of the odds are in order. I mean it is possible that I will win the lottery jackpot however I also understand that is it highly unlikely. Is the American Dream a long shot or a pretty good bet?

Dreams have a peculiar hold on Americans. The American Dream of economic prosperity. Martin Luther King’s I have a dream speech. Dreams speak to the possibilities of our country and of us as individual citizens. It is important to keep in mind when we use the word dream it is aspirational not reality. Let’s keep dreaming because I am certain we will come up with better ways of doing things. Let’s also be realistic about what is happening to the vast majority of people and give them a way to help some of their dreams come true. Until then, just keep on working hard and, of course, buying lottery tickets.